Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.088763 0.103116 0.119565 0.139921 0.164593 0.193720 0.231002
2025-10-05 0.068277 0.085486 0.107099 0.136619 0.176489 0.229349 0.306245
2025-10-12 0.055830 0.074570 0.100073 0.138158 0.195083 0.279547 0.419428
2025-10-19 0.046017 0.065062 0.092908 0.138042 0.212307 0.335377 0.568177
2025-10-26 0.038673 0.057573 0.087087 0.138771 0.232135 0.405045 0.781216
2025-11-02 0.031941 0.049689 0.079026 0.134038 0.242215 0.464634 1.019879
2025-11-09 0.026208 0.042326 0.070308 0.126031 0.244322 0.512383 1.277317
2025-11-16 0.022673 0.038027 0.066045 0.125441 0.262238 0.607217 1.755473
2025-11-23 0.019791 0.034359 0.062196 0.124785 0.280732 0.718251 2.429652
2025-11-30 0.017658 0.031697 0.059755 0.126642 0.307212 0.874083 3.527865
2025-12-07 0.015804 0.029244 0.057238 0.127736 0.333276 1.054772 5.135882
2025-12-14 0.013819 0.026194 0.052836 0.122983 0.340979 1.182984 6.836532
2025-12-21 0.011415 0.021982 0.045233 0.108298 0.312972 1.157960 7.587353
2025-12-28 0.010363 0.020492 0.043614 0.109597 0.340520 1.414573 11.769924
2026-01-04 0.009610 0.019533 0.043075 0.113999 0.383536 1.818979 20.344812
2026-01-11 0.008857 0.018452 0.042019 0.116636 0.423051 2.286269 35.168104
2026-01-18 0.008203 0.017496 0.041098 0.119546 0.467667 2.898487 64.433135
2026-01-25 0.007443 0.016166 0.038908 0.117453 0.488534 3.398748 106.405779
2026-02-01 0.006671 0.014696 0.036047 0.112067 0.489780 3.752139 160.436768
2026-02-08 0.006185 0.013877 0.034892 0.112757 0.526618 4.612240 318.739599
2026-02-15 0.005745 0.013112 0.033749 0.113174 0.563909 5.658017 682.058863
2026-02-22 0.005405 0.012561 0.033144 0.115664 0.618880 7.260019 1856.113308
2026-03-01 0.005079 0.012000 0.032397 0.117346 0.672127 9.218968 5907.470916